I was published in Unherd on the 2021 Northern Ireland Census figures.
Demography isn’t destiny but it contributes powerfully to it. This week’s Northern Ireland 2021 Census release, showing Catholics outnumbering Protestants for the first time, does not in itself doom the Union. It should, however, represent a major warning to Unionists on both sides of the Irish Sea.
That is because the Union now depends on the votes of Catholics and liberal-Left Protestants who backed Remain in overwhelming numbers. These people do not have a strong British identity, but it is coming under more strain in a region where the Northern Ireland Protocol means Brexit is still a live issue.
DUP politicians often score points with their own base by trampling on the shibboleths of these voters, while few London-based Tories understand what makes them tick at all. That isn’t a good platform from which to win their votes in a border poll. From here, I’d be surprised if the Union makes it to 2040.
Click through to read the whole piece at Unherd – it’s free.
