northern ireland

Who Benefits from the Collapse of Power Sharing?

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Cross-posted at Slugger O’Toole…

We’re unlikely to know for a long time exactly why talks on restoring devolved government collapsed in such spectacular fashion last week. It’s always worth asking, in those circumstances, ‘cui bono?’

A long-term collapse in devolved arrangements, and a return to Direct Rule, whether or not it is acknowledged as such, would seem at first blush to benefit the DUP, at least in the short term. It also represents a significant shift in power within the DUP, away from Foster and the Assembly group with its stratum of moderates like Simon Hamilton, and towards the consistently hardline Westminster group, which is currently keeping Theresa May in power.

That in turn gives the DUP Westminster group a free hand to push for a hard Brexit with a relatively hard border, not tied into any Executive or wider Assembly approach which would see the DUP constrained by the need for consensus with Sinn Féin and a broader majority of pro-European opinion in the Assembly.

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First Past the Post is now harming unionism because it is concentrated around Belfast

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This article appeared in the News Letter of 9 September 2016 With Northern Ireland’s healthy population growth in recent years, the province is set to lose only one of its existing 18 seats. Additionally, some large differences in electorate size have developed, and the Boundary Commissioners are required to keep these variances below 5%. No … Read more

“A Battle A Day” Is Creating A Political Wasteland

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This blog was originally posted on Slugger O’Toole…

“It will always be a battle a day between those who want maximum change and those who want to maintain the status quo”. Recognise the quote? It came from Gerry Adams’ speech calling for the IRA to permanently abandon violence in 2005.

Just a few days before the 2007 Assembly Elections that restored devolved government, Peter Robinson concurred with Adams’ assessment in a BBC Radio Ulster interview. Asked whether a government jointly led by his party and Gerry Adams’ could work in practice, Robinson continued ominously, “This cannot be a lasting and enduring form of government.”

Eight years into a power-sharing experiment that has never worked well and is now at risk of collapse, it’s worth remembering that the leaders of its two main parties were sceptical before it even began.

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The youth vote: Cynicism of the first post-Troubles generation of voters

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This article appeared in the Belfast Telegraph of 16 June 2012 Northern Ireland’s youngest adults have no memories of the worst of The Troubles. From September, new voters coming onto the electoral register will be people who were not even born when the first IRA ceasefire was declared. Our 18-24-year-olds showed some surprising differences from … Read more